SAPPUR: (NERC) Scoping Study on the Analysis, Propagation and Communication of Probability, Uncertainty and Risk

This NERC scoping study is led by two senior scientists affiliated with the Bristol Environmental Risk Research Centre (BRISK): Dr Jonathan Rougier (PI, Statistics Group, Dept Mathematics) and Professor Stephen Sparks FRS (CoI, Earth Sciences, Director of BRISK). It is focused on our understanding of risk and uncertainty with respect to natural hazards: how they are assessed and quantified, how they are communicated, to what extent current practices meet the needs of stakeholders, and how the current situation can be improved, with reference to practice in other areas. The study will prepare the ground for a world-class programme on risk and natural hazards as part of the NERC Theme Action Plan on Natural Hazards. It is directly related to the overarching NERC programme on Quantifying Uncertainty, and the cross-Research-Councils theme Living With Environmental Change.

The scoping study is supported by the Willis Research Network, and by an Expert Panel of specialists in natural hazards, in statistics, in risk perception and communication, and in insurance and policy. The study includes mechanisms to consult and engage the wider UK science community, which will be critical to the successful delivery of NERC research programmes building on the recommendations of the scoping study.

Team resource: AirSet (University of Bristol access only)


The SAPPUR report was submitted to NERC on the 30th November 2009. For more details please see the SAPPUR news page or contact Lisa Hill.