The quantitative measurement and forecasting of precipitation is crucial for predicting and mitigating the effects of flood-producing storms. In recent years the UK has experienced devastating flooding events such as Boscastle in 2004, Carlisle in 2005, Tewksbury in 2007, the Morpeth floods in 2008, and the Cumbria floods in 2009. The main goal in flood forecasting is to provide reliable information to the general public, local authorities, and emergency services under the threat of potential flooding. Although significant progress has been made in the measurement and forecasting of precipitation using weather radars and numerical weather prediction models, there is a need to improve the estimation and forecasting of precipitation during extreme rainfall events in particular, not only for flood prediction in large rural catchments but also for applications in urban hydrology. Real-time flood forecasting systems for flood prediction and warning in urban areas require measurements and forecasts of precipitation with high spatial and temporal resolutions. Weather radar systems are able to provide such measurements, but unfortunately radar rainfall estimations are affected by different sources of error. These errors have been difficult to quantify and traditionally ignored when producing radar-based precipitation forecasts for urban flood forecasting. Accurate, reliable and timely quantitative precipitation forecasting is an important and challenging task that it is now crucial for the reduction of hazard and the preservation of life and property in large urban areas in the probability of flooding. The aim of this EPSRC-funded research is to develop a probabilistic urban flood forecasting system that integrates information from radar, raingauges, atmospheric observations and Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models for the real-time prediction and management of severe storms affecting urban areas.
Liguori S., Rico-Ramirez M.A. "Probabilistic forecasts based on radar rainfall uncertainty", RCUK Water Research Showcase. The Wellcome Trust Collection Conference Centre, London, UK, March, 2012.
Liguori S., Rico-Ramirez M.A. "Hydrological applications of probabilistic radar rainfall forecasts", Queens School Research Seminar, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK, November 2011.
Liguori S., Rico-Ramirez M.A. "Probabilistic radar rainfall forecasts for flow predictions in urban catchments", Gauge-radar merging workshop, Met Office, Exeter, UK, November 2011.
Liguori S., Rico-Ramirez M.A. "Probabilistic radar rainfall forecasts for flow predictions in urban catchments", Radar meeting. Yorkshire Water, Bradford, UK, September 2011.
Liguori S., Rico-Ramirez M.A. "Short-term hybrid forecasts blending NWP rainfall forecasts and radar nowcasts for probabilistic flow predictions", HEPEX International Workshop on Post-processing and Verification of hydrological ensemble predictions. UNESCO-IHE, Delft, the Netherlands, June 2011.
Liguori S., Rico-Ramirez M.A., Schellart A., Saul A. "High-resolution ensemble rainfall forecasts in urban hydrological applications", European Geosciences Union (EGU) General Assembly. Vienna, Austria, April 2011.
Liguori S., Rico-Ramirez M.A. "Probabilistic forecasting of rainfall from radar nowcasting and hybrid systems", Weather Radar and Hydrology (WRaH) International Symposium. Exeter, UK, April, 2011.
Liguori, S & Rico-Ramirez, MA. 'Quantitative assessment of short-term rainfall forecasts from radar nowcasts and MM5 forecasts', Hydrological Processes, in press, (pp. -), 2012. 10.1002/hyp.8415
Liguori, S, Rico-Ramirez, MA, Schellart, A & Saul, A. 'High-resolution ensemble rainfall forecasts in urban hydrological applications', EGU General Assembly, Geophysical Research Abstracts, 13, EGU2011-373, (pp. -), 2011.
Liguori, S, Rico-Ramirez, MA 'Probabilistic forecasting of rainfall from radar nowcasting and hybrid systems', IAHS Redbook Publication, 351 (in press), (pp. -), 2011.
Schellart A, Ochoa, S, Simoes, N., Wang, L-P, Rico-Ramirez, MA, Liguori, S, Duncan, A, Chen, A.S., Keedwell, E., Djordjevic, S., Savic, D.A., Saul, A & Maksimovic, C. 'Urban pluvial flood modelling with real time rainfall information ? UK case studies', 12nd International Conference on Urban Drainage, Porto Alegre/Brazil, 10-15 September 2011, (pp. -), 2011.
Schellart A, Liguori S, Kramer S, Saul A & Rico-Ramirez, MA 'Analysis of different quantitative precipitation forecast methods for run off and flow prediction in a small urban area', IAHS Redbook Publication, 351 (in press), (pp. -), 2011.
Wang LP, Simões N, Rico-Ramirez MA, Ochoa S, Leitão J & Maksimović C "Radar-based pluvial flood forecasting over urban areas: Redbridge case study", IAHS Redbook Publication, 351 (in press), (pp. -), 2011.