Evidence Synthesis for Decision Modelling course
If you are interested in future Evidence Synthesis for Decision Modelling courses please contact Katrina Crook with your details. Katrina will contact you once a date and venue has been set for the next course.
29th June 2009 - 3rd July 2009 San Servolo, Venice, Italy
Course faculty: Professor Keith Abrams, Professor Tony Ades, Dr Nicola Cooper, Dr Daniela De Angelis, Dr Alex Sutton, and Dr Nicky Welton
Provisional course details and timetable
Overview
The methods taught on the course are designed to be compatible with the recent guidance issued by the National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence (NICE) and similar bodies worldwide, requiring probabilistic methods in cost effectiveness models. The course focuses particularly on Bayesian methods for evidence synthesis that can be integrated within a probabilistic modelling framework, and can be used to statistically combine evidence from a range of structures. The course is built around a series of examples using the WinBUGS statistical software.
Intended for:
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Anyone undertaking health technology assessments, including in the context of cost-effectiveness analysis.
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Statisticians, with or without experience in meta-analysis, who wish to learn about Bayesian methods for evidence synthesis particularly in the context of cost-effectiveness analysis.
Pre-requisites
- Applicants should have a good working knowledge of: fixed and random effects meta-analysis, logistic regression, and statistical interaction.
- Experience with probabilistic decision analysis in cost effectiveness analysis would be an advantage, but is not necessary.
- Applicants are expected to have downloaded WinBUGS 1.4.3 prior to the course, and to have worked through the on-line tutorial, and explored the on-line BLOCKER example (Help_Examples Vol 1_Blocker). NB you need to use initial values Inits2 for this to run.
Delegates must bring their own laptop PCs downloaded with WinBUGS 1.4.3 software and must have registered and decoded the key.
Provisional course details and timetable
Course work starts at 09:00 each day and ends at 17:00 (day 5 finishes at 15:30), with breaks for morning and afternoon coffee and lunch.
Day 1 08:30 - 09:00: Registration and laptop set-up. 09:00: Introduction to Bayesian Inference & WinBUGS. Bayesian Approaches to Meta-Analysis – fixed and random effects modelling. Interpretation of heterogeneity.
Day 2 Meta-regression and adjusting for baseline risk. Model critique in random effects meta-analysis: Deviance, DIC, Cross-Validation. Integrating evidence synthesis with decision modelling. Individual Patient Data.
Day 3 09:00 - 10:45: Revision and Q&A session (optional). Multi-parameter evidence synthesis in epidemiological models. Mixed Treatment Comparisons (MTC). Fixed and random effect models. MTC embedded in a cost-effectiveness analysis. MTC with continuous outcomes and rates.
Day 4 Markov Models in WinBUGS: asthma model. Evidence synthesis for Markov models. Combining Observational and RCT evidence: weighting methods, generalised evidence synthesis.
Day 5 Expected Value of Information. Guest Lecture (to be announced). Participant presentations. Overview of further issues in evidence synthesis: publication bias, subgroups, multiple outcomes, epidemiological models. 15.00 - 15.30: Tea and Farewell !
Social events - provisional
Tuesday 30th June
18:00: short tour (to be announced)
19:30: course dinner
Thursday 2nd July
18:00 - 19:30: special tour, Venice (to be announced)
Venue
This year the course is once again taking place on San Servolo, an island in the Venetian lagoon, 10 minutes by a regular boat service from St Mark’s Square, Venice.
Course faculty
Keith Abrams PhD is Professor of Medical Statistics at the University of Leicester. His primary research focus is on the use of Bayesian methods in bio-medical research and health-care evaluation, especially RCTs, evidence synthesis and decision modeling.
Tony Ades PhD, Professor of Public Health Science, leads the programme in Multi-Parameter Evidence Synthesis in Epidemiology and Decision Making at University of Bristol. His particular interests are in epidemiological applications, particularly in screening and infectious disease.
Nicola Cooper is a Senior Research Fellow at the University of Leicester. Her primary research interest is the integration of statistical evidence synthesis with probabilistic economic decision modeling.
Daniela De Angelis has joint posts at Health Protection Agency Centre for Infections, UK, and the MRC Biostatistics Unit, Cambridge. Her focus is on statistical inference in infectious diseases modelling, and the development and application of statistical methods to characterise epidemics by synthesizing the information from a variety of sources. This work has been used to provide evidence-based advice to the Department of Health (DoH) on diseases such as HIV and Hepatitis C.
Alex Sutton is a Reader in Medical Statistics at the University of Leicester. He has a long-standing interest in methods for evidence synthesis; particularly when used for decision making. His current research includes synthesis methods for adverse events, diagnostic test performance and dealing with publication bias.
Nicky Welton PhD is a Senior Research Fellow at University of Bristol. She is a Bayesian statistician with extensive experience of evidence synthesis including Mixed Treatment comparisons and extensions to multiple outcomes, synthesis with collapsed categories, methods for potentially biased RCT evidence, and epidemiology of infectious disease synthesis. Expected Value of Information analysis is an area of special interest.
Courses fees and registration
Please complete the registration form to provisional book your place on the course. A limited number of places are available, so please book early to guarantee your place. The last date for registration is Monday 8th June 2009.
Please note that registration cannot be processed until full payment has been received. Course fees will cover workshop tuition and documentation; breakfast, midday lunch, tea and coffee; the course dinner on Tuesday 30th June; and social events. You will need to book your own accommodation.
- Student fee - £550
- Academic fee - £900
- Industry fee - £1750
Method of payment: Credit/Debit card (VISA, Mastercard, Switch, Maestro); cheque made payable to 'University of Bristol'; or by BACS. If you wish to pay by BACs please contact Jessica Blissett (contact details below) who will arrange for an invoice to be sent to you.
Completed registration forms and cheques to be sent to: Jessica Blissett, Community Based Medicine, University of Bristol, 25/27 Belgrave Road, Clifton, Bristol, BS8 2AA, UK, Fax: +44 (0) 117 331 3815 or E-mail: mpes-admin@bristol.ac.uk. If you prefer you can contact Jessica by phone with your credit card details - Tel: +44 (0) 117 3313865.
Cancellation
Cancellation must be received in writing and will subject to an administration charge of £60 per delegate. If we cannot fill your place then you will be liable for the full workshop fee. Cancellations must be received before the 21st June 2009. In the unlikely event the course is cancelled, our liability is limited to refunding workshop fees.
Accommodation
Accommodation is available on San Servolo island. The accommodation facilities provide comfortably equipped rooms that are connected to the Convention Centre. Prices, per night per room, in Euros.
- €80 - single room (with bathroom).
- €115 - double room (with bathroom).
- €130 - triple room (with bathroom).
- €145 - quadruple room (with 2 bathrooms).
- €145 - suite (with bathroom).
Alternatively, it is possible to stay on the main island and travel to San Servolo by boat in 10 minutes. Participants wishing to do this might try to find somewhere not too far from the ACTV Line 20 stop at S Zaccaria, along the Riva degli Schiavoni. A selection of hotels on the waterfront or a few steps back.
To book accommodation on the island please contact Jessica Blissett on +44 (0) 117 3313865 or mpes-admin@bristol.ac.uk with your requirements and card details (VISA & Mastercard).
Partners and children
Participants are welcome to bring their partners and children as guests. It may be possible to arrange accommodation for them on San Servolo, but this needs to be checked with Jessica Blissett.
* Please note that guests are invited to the course social events (tours and dinner). However, course organisers must be notified in advance and an extra charge will be payable.
Transport to Venice and San Servolo
Getting to Venice
By Air to Venice Marco Polo Airport, or Treviso Airport, or by Train to Venice Santa Lucia station.
From Venice Airport (Marco Polo)
Buses run regularly to Piazzale Roma (P.le Roma), which is close to the Venice Railway Station. Journey time 20 minutes. A similar service connects Treviso Airport with P.le Roma.
Alternatively, a water-bus goes from the Airport to St Mark’s Square (S.Zaccaria, or San Marco) every 30 minutes. Journey time 1 hour or 1 hour 20 minutes.
Water Taxis (motoscafi) are also available at the Airport and elsewhere. These are very fast but much more expensive, and will take you directly to San Servolo in 20-30 minutes.
From the Railway Station (Ferrovia), water buses go to S. Zaccaria (St Mark’s Square), ACTV Lines 41,51 (25 minutes), ACTV lines 1,2,3 (45 minutes).
From the nearby Piazzale Roma, water buses 41, 51, and 2 go to S. Zaccaria.
To San Servolo island
Water Buses to San Servolo leave S.Zaccaria every 30 minutes. ACTV Line 20. Journey time 10 minutes.
San Servolo Convention Centre website