Publications
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Recent invited conference presentations
Recent abstracted conference presentations
Papers in press
Soares M, Welton NJ, Harrison DA, Peura P, Shankar Hari M, Harvey SE, Madan J, Ades AE, Palmer SJ, Rowan KM. An evaluation of the feasibility, cost and value of information of a multicentre randomised controlled trial of intravenous immunoglobulin for sepsis (severe sepsis and septic shock). HTA Report 08/70/01
Price MJ, Welton NJ, Briggs A, Ades AE. Model averaging in the presence of structural uncertainty about treatment effects: impact on treatment decision and Expected Value of Information. In press: Value in Health 2011 Vol. 14
Presanis A, DeAngelis D, Goubar A, Gill ON, Ades AE. Bayesian evidence synthesis for a transmission dynamic model for HIV among men who have sex with men. In press, Biostatistics
Moreno SG, Sutton AJ, Ades AE, Cooper NJ, Abrams KR. Adjusting for publication biases across similar interventions performed well when compared to gold standard data. In press, Journal of Clinical Epidemiology
Guyot P, Welton NJ, Ouwens, MJNM, Ades AE. Survival time outcomes in randomised controlled trials and meta-analyses: the parallel universes of efficacy and cost-effectiveness. In press: Value in Health
Bryan S, Dormandy E, Roberts TE, Ades AE, Barton P, Juarez-Garcia A, Andronis L, Karnon J, Marteau TM. The cost-effectiveness of primary care screening for sickle cell and thalassaemia. In press, British Journal of General Practice
Welton NJ, Madan J, Ades AE. Are head-to-head trials of biologics needed: the role of Value of Information methods in Arthritis research. In press Rheumatology
Ades AE, Madan J, Welton NJ. Indirect and Mixed Treatment Comparisons in Arthritis research. In press, Rheumatology
Madan J, Ades AE, Welton NJ. An overview of models used in economic analyses of biologic therapies for arthritis: From current diversity to future consensus. In press, Rheumatology
Dakin HA, Welton NJ, Ades AE, Collins S, Orme M, Kelly S. Mixed treatment comparison of repeated measurements of a continuous endpoint: An example using topical treatments for primary open-angle glaucoma and ocular hypertension. Statistics in Medicine: In press
Hollingworth W, Turner JA, Welton NJ, Comstock BA, Deyo RA. Cost and Cost-Effectiveness of Spinal Cord Stimulation (SCS) for Failed Back Surgery Syndrome: An Observational Study in a Workers' Compensation Population. In press: Spine
Cooper NJ, Peters J, Lai MCW, Juni P, Wandel S, Palmer S, Paulden M, Conti S, Welton NJ, Abrams KR, Bujkiewicz S, Spiegelhalter D, Sutton AJ. How valuable are multiple treatment comparison methods in evidence-based healthcare evaluation? In press Value in Health
Abrams KR, Ades AE, Cooper NJ, Sutton A, Welton NJ. Evidence Synthesis for Decision Making. To be published by Wiley.
Published papers
2011
Lu G, Ades AE, Welton NJ. A two-stage approach to mixed treatment comparison meta-analysis. Submitted to Journal of the American Statistical Association.
Caldwell DM, Welton NJ, Ades AE. Methods for Mixed Treatment Comparisons in overviews of reviews. In revision, Journal of Clinical Epidemiology.
Lu G, Welton NJ, Higgins JPT, Ian R. White IR, Ades AE. Linear inference for mixed treatment comparison meta-analysis: A two-stage approach, Research Synthesis Methods, 2011, 2:43-60.
Welton NJ, Willis S, Ades AE. Synthesis of survival and disease progression outcomes for health technology assessment of cancer therapies. Research Synthesis Methodology 2011, 1; 258-271. Program files (Zip, 49KB)
Salanti G, Ades AE, Ioannidis JPA. Graphical methods and numerical summaries for presenting results from multiple-treatments meta-analysis: an overview and tutorial. Journal of Clinical Epidemiology 2011, 64: 163-171.
Van den Breul A, Gailly J, Devrise S, Welton NJ, Shortt AJ, Vrijens F. The protective effect of ophthalmic viscoelastic devices on endothelial cell loss during cataract surgery: a meta-analysis using mixed treatment comparisons. British Journal of Ophthalmology 2011, 95; 5-10
Price MJ, Welton NJ, Ades AE. Parameterisation of treatment effects for meta-analysis in Multi-state Markov models. Statistics in Medicine 2011, 30; 140-151.
McIntosh B, Cameron C, Singh SR, Yu C, Ahuja T, Welton NJ, Dahl M. Second-line therapy in patients with type 2 diabetes inadequately controlled with metformin monotherapy: a systematic review and mixed-treatment comparison meta-analysis. Open Medicine 2011 5:e35
2010
Caldwell DM, Welton NJ, Ades AE. Mixed treatment comparisons methods provide internally coherent treatment effect estimates based on overviews of reviews, and may reveal inconsistency. Journal of Clinical Epidemiology 2010; 63:875-882.
Ades AE, Mavranezouli I, Dias S, Welton NJ, Whittington C, Kendall T. Network meta-analysis with competing risk outcomes. Value in Health 2010 13:976-983 (voted 2010 best paper by Value in Health editorial board).
Presanis A, Gill ON, Chadborn TR, Hill C, Hope V, Logan L, Rice BD, Delpech VC, Ades AE, De Angelis D. Insights into the rise in HIV infections, 2001 to 2008: a Bayesian synthesis of prevalence evidence. AIDS 2010, 24; 2849–2858
Salanti G, Dias S, Welton NJ, Ades AE, Golfinopoulos V, Kyrgiou M, Mauri D, Ioannidis J. Evaluating novel agent effects in multiple treatments meta-regression. Statistics in Medicine 2010 23:2369-2383
Dias S, Welton NJ, Marinho VCC, Salanti G, Higgins J, Ades AE. Estimation and adjustment of Bias in randomised evidence using Mixed Treatment Comparison Meta-analysis. JRSSA 2010 173:613-629
Glaser B, Ades AE, Lewis S, Emmet P, Lewis G, Davey Smith G, Zammit S. Perinatal folate-related exposures and risk of psychotic symptoms in the ALSPAC birth cohort. Schizophrenia Research 2010; 120, 177-183.
Griffin S, Welton NJ, Claxton KP. Exploring the research decision space: the expected value of information for sequential research designs. Medical Decision Making 2010 30:155-162.
Dias S, Welton NJ, Ades AE. Study designs to detect sponsorship and other biases in systematic reviews. Journal of Clinical Epidemiology 2010, 63, 587-588. Program files (Zip, 1453KB). Available at http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jclinepi.2010.01.005.
Govan L, Ades AE, Weir CJ, Welton NJ, Langhorne P. Controlling ecological bias in evidence synthesis of trials reporting on collapsed and overlapping covariate categories. Statistics in Medicine 2010 29:1340-1356
Caldwell DM, Welton NJ & Ades AE. Mixed treatment comparison analysis provides internally coherent treatment effect estimates based on overviews of reviews, and can reveal inconsistency. Journal of Clinical Epidemiology 2010: doi:10.1016/j.jclinepi.2009.08.025. PDF (182KB), WinBUGS program files (2KB).
Dormandy E, Bryan S, Gulliford MC, Roberts T, Ades T, Calnan M, et al. Antenatal screening for haemoglobinopathies in primary care: a cohort study and cluster randomised trial to inform a simulation model. The Screening for Haemoglobinopathies in First Trimester (SHIFT) trial. Health Technol Assess 2010;14(20). PDF (1772KB). Executive Summary (210KB)
Dias S, Welton NJ, Caldwell DM, Ades AE. Checking consistency in mixed treatment comparison meta-analysis. Statistics in Medicine 2010, 29(7-8): 932-944. Program files (Zip, 30 Kb). http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/sim.3767
Wandel S, Jüni P, Tendal B, Nüesch E, Villiger PM, Welton NJ, Reichenbach S, Trelle S. Effects of glucosamine, chondroitin or placebo for osteoarthritis of the hip or knee: network meta-analysis. BMJ 2010 341:c4675
Judge A, Welton NJ, Sandhu J, Ben-Shlomo Y. Equity in Access to Total Joint Replacement of the Hip and Knee in England. BMJ 2010 341:c4092
Soares M, Welton NJ, Harrison DA, Peura P, Shankar Hari M, Harvey SE, Madan J, Ades AE, Palmer SJ, Rowan KM. An evaluation of the feasibility, cost and value of information of a multicentre randomised controlled trial of intravenous immunoglobulin for sepsis (severe sepsis and septic shock). HTA Report 08/70/01
2009
Edwards SJ, Clarke MJ, Wordsworth S, Welton NJ. Carbapenems versus other beta-lactams in the treatment of hospitalised patients with infection: a mixed treatment comparison. Current Medical Research & Opinion 2009; 25(1): 251-61.
Burch J, Paulden M, Conti S, Stock C, Corbett M, Welton NJ, et al. Antiviral drugs for the treatment of influenza: a systematic review and economic evaluation. Health Technology Assessment 2009; 13(58)
Ades AE. Bayesian Evidence Synthesis. In M Kattan (Ed), Sage Encyclopedia of Medical Decision Making, 2009, Sage Publications Inc, 59-63.
Welton NJ, Ades AE, Carlin JB, Altman DG, Sterne JAC. Models for potentially biased evidence in meta-analysis using empirically based priors. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Statistics in Society, 2009; 172:119-136. Program files (Zip, 3086Kb).
Moreno SG, Sutton AJ, Ades AE, Stanley TD, Abrams KR, Peters JL, Cooper NJ. Assessment of regression-based methods to adjust for publication bias through a comprehensive simulation study. BMC Medical Research Methodology 2009; 9:2 doi:10.1186/1471-2288-9-2.
Welton NJ, Caldwell DM, Adamopoulis E, Vedhara K. A mixed treatment comparison meta-analysis of complex psychological interventions for intermediate and terminal endpoints for patients with coronary heart disease. American Journal of Epidemiology, 2009; 169: 1158-69. Program files (Zip, 212Kb).
Cooper NJ, Morris D, Sutton AJ, Ades AE, Welton NJ. Addressing between-study heterogeneity and inconsistency in mixed treatment comparisons : application to stroke prevention in individuals with non-rheumatic Atrial Fibrillation. Statistics in Medicine 2009, 28: 1861-1881.
Moreno S, Sutton AJ, Turner EH, Abrams KR, Cooper NJ, Palmer TM, Ades AE. Novel methods to deal with publication bias: global application to anti-depressant trials where a gold standard exists. British Medical Journal 2009; 339: b2981.
De Angelis D, Sweeting MJ, Ades AE, Hickman M. An evidence synthesis approach to estimating Hepatitis C prevalence in England and Wales. Statistical Methods in Medical Research 2009; 18: 361-379.
Sweeting MJ, De Angelis D, Ades AE, Hickman M. Estimating the prevalence of ex-injecting drug use in the population. Statistical Methods in Medical Research 2009; 18: 381-395.
Lu G, Ades AE. Modeling between-trial variance structure in mixed treatment comparisons. Biostatistics 2009; 10: 792-805.
Judge A, Welton NJ, Sandhu J, Ben-Shlomo Y. Geographical Variation in the Provision of Elective Primary Hip and Knee Replacement: the Role of Socio-demographic, Hospital and Distance Variables. Journal of Public Health 2009; 31:413-422.
Judge A, Welton NJ, Shaw M, Sandhu J, Ben-Shlomo Y. Modelling the Need for Hip and Knee Replacement Surgery. Part 1: A Two-Stage Cross-Cohort Approach. Arthritis Care and Research 2009 61:1657-1666
Judge A, Welton NJ, Sandhu J, Ben-Shlomo Y. Modelling the Need for Hip and Knee Replacement Surgery. Part 2: Incorporating Census Data to Provide Small Area Predictions for Need with Uncertainty Bounds. Arthritis Care and Research 2009 61:1667-73
2008
Welton NJ, Johnstone EC, David SP, Munafò MR. A cost-effectiveness analysis of genetic testing of the DRD2 Taq1A polymorphism to aid treatment choice for smoking cessation. Nicotine and Tobacco Research 2008; 10:231-240. WinBUGS code (ODC, 7Kb).
Salanti G, Higgins JPT, Ades AE, Ioannides JPA. Evaluation of networks of randomised trials. Statistical Methods in Medical Research 2008; 17: 279-301.
Goubar A, Ades AE, DeAngelis D, McGarrigle CA, Mercer C, Tookey P, Fenton K, Gill ON. Estimates of HIV prevalence and proportion diagnosed based on Bayesian multi-parameter synthesis of surveillance data. JRSS(A) 2008, 171; 541-580 (with discussion). WinBUGs code 1 (ODC, 54Kb), WinBUGs code 2 (ODC, 55Kb). WinBUGs code 3 (ODC, 58Kb), WinBUGs code 4 (ODC, 63Kb), Supplementary tables (PDF, 69Kb).
White I, Welton NJ, Wood A, Ades AE, Higgins JPT. Allowing for uncertainty due to missing data in meta-analysis: 2. Hierarchical models. Statistics in Medicine, 2008; 27: 728-745.
Sutton AJ, Ades AE, Abrams K, Cooper NJ. Use of indirect and mixed treatment comparisons for Technology Assessment. PharmacoEconomics 2008, 26: 753-767.
Palmer TM, Peters JL, Sutton AJ, Moreno SG. Contour-enhanced funnel plots for meta-analysis. Stata Journal 2008;8(2):242-254.
Sweeting M, DeAngelis D, Hickman M, Ades AE . Estimating HCV prevalence in England and Wales by synthesising evidence from multiple data sources: assessing data conflict and model fit. Biostatistics. 2008;9(4):715-734.
Welton NJ, Ades AE, Caldwell DM, Peters TJ. Research prioritisation based on Expected Value of Partial Perfect Information: A case study on interventions to increase the uptake of breast cancer screening. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A (with discussion). 2008: 171; 807-841. Program files (Zip, 5Kb). WBDev code (ODC, 120Kb).
Dieppe PA, Ades AE. Why does good health services research seem so hard to fund? Journal of Health Services Research and Policy, 2008; 13 Suppl 3: 1-5.
Presanis A, DeAngelis D, Spiegelhalter D, Seaman S, Goubar A, Ades AE. Conflicting evidence in a Bayesian synthesis of surveillance data to estimate HIV prevalence. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, 2008; 171: 915-937.
Welton NJ, Cooper NJ, Ades AE, Lu G, Sutton AJ. Mixed treatment comparison with multiple outcomes reported inconsistently across trials: evaluation of antivirals for treatment of influenza A and B. Statistics in Medicine 2008; 27: 5620-5639. WinBUGS code (Zip, 120Kb).
Ades AE, Welton NJ, Caldwell DM, Price MJ, Goubar A, Lu G. Multi-parameter evidence synthesis in epidemiology and medical decision making. Journal of Health Services Research and Policy, 2008; 13 Suppl 3: 12-22.
2007
Caldwell DM, Ades AE, Gibb DM. Validity of indirect comparisons in meta-analysis. Lancet 2007,369: 270 (letter).
Colbourne T, Asseborg C, Bojke L, Philips Z, Claxton K, Ades AE, Gilbert R. Screening for Early onset Group B Streptococcus in the UK: cost-effectiveness and expected value of information analysis. Report for NHS HTA Project 04/51. Health Technology Assessment 2007; 11(29), 1-226.
Lu G, Ades AE, Sutton AJS, Cooper NJ , Briggs AH, Caldwell DM. Meta-analysis of Mixed Treatment Comparisons at Multiple Follow-up Times. Statistics in Medicine 2007: 26; 3681-3699.
Welton NJ, White I, Lu G, Higgins JPT, Ades AE, Hilden J. Correction: Interpretation of random effects meta-analysis in decision models. Medical Decision Making 2007, 27, 212.
Colbourn T, Asseborg C, Bojke L, Phillips , Welton NJ, Claxton K, Ades AE, Gilbert R. Cost-effectiveness of preventive strategies for Group B streptococcal and other bacterial infections in early infancy. BMJ 2007, 335: 655-658.
Cooper NJ, Sutton AJ, Ades AE, Paisley S, Jones DR. Use of evidence in economic decision models: Practical issues and methodological challenges. Health Economics 2007; 16: 1277-1286.
2006
Ades AE, Sutton AJ. Multiple parameter evidence synthesis in epidemiology and medical decision making: current approaches. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society (A), 2006, 169: 5-35.
Ades AE, Sculpher M, Sutton A, Abrams K, Cooper N, Welton N, Lu G. Bayesian Methods for Evidence Synthesis in Cost-Effectiveness Analysis. Pharmacoeconomics 2006, 24: 1-19.
Lu G, Ades AE. Assessing evidence consistency in mixed treatment comparisons. Journal of the American Statistical Association 2006, 101: 447-459. Program files (Zip, 634Kb).
Ades AE, Claxton K, Sculpher MJ. Evidence synthesis, parameter correlation and probabilistic sensitivity analysis. Health Economics 2006, 15: 373-381.
Brown J, Welton NJ, Bankhead C, Richards SH, Roberts L, Tydeman C, Peters T. A Bayesian approach to analysing the cost-effectiveness of two primary care interventions aimed at improving attendance for breast screening. Health Economics, 2006; 15: 435-445.
Cooper NJ, Sutton AJ, Lu G, Khunti K. Mixed comparison of stroke prevention treatments in individuals with non-rheumatic atrial fibrillation. Archives of Internal Medicine 2006; 166: 1269-75.
Thompson J, Palmer T, Moreno S. Bayesian Analysis in Stata using WinBUGS. Stata Journal 2006;6(4):530-549.
Mar J, Moreno SG, Chilcott J. Probabilistic cost-effectiveness analysis of the treatment of sleep apnea. Gaceta Sanitaria 2006;20:47-53.
Welton NJ, Ades AE, Carlin JB, Sterne JAC. A Bias Model for the Combination of Low and High Quality Trials: Empirically Based Priors, Sensitivity Analyses and Discussion. Paper presented to “Explaining the results of a complex probabilistic modelling exercise: conflict, consistency and sensitivity analysis” MRC Public Health Service Research Network Workshop, Cambridge September 7-8, 2006.
Welton NJ, Ades AE. Markov Disease Progression Models, Evidence Synthesis and Partially Observed Data. http://www.bris.ac.uk/cobm/research/mpes/mdpm.html
Lu G, Ades AE. Detecting inconsistency between evidence sources in comparison networks.Paper presented to “Explaining the results of a complex probabilistic modelling exercise: conflict, consistency and sensitivity analysis” MRC Public Health Service Research Network Workshop, Cambridge September 7-8, 2006.
2005
Welton NJ, Ades AE. A model of toxoplasmosis incidence in the UK: Evidence synthesis and consistency of evidence. JRSS(C) Applied Statistics 2005; 54: 385-404. WinBUGS code (ODC, 24Kb)
Welton NJ, Ades AE. Estimation of Markov Chain Transition Probabilities and Rates from Fully and Partially Observed Data: Uncertainty Propagation, Evidence Synthesis and Model Calibration. Medical Decision Making, 2005; 25: 633-45. For programs and further information.
Ades AE, Lu G, Higgins JPT. The interpretation of random effects meta-analysis in decision models. Medical Decision Making, 2005; 25: 646-54.
Caldwell DM, Ades AE, Higgins JPT. Simultaneous comparison of multiple treatments: combining direct and indirect evidence. British Medical Journal, 2005; 331: 897-900.
Papers submitted
Guyot P, Welton NJ, Ades AE. Reconstructing the Kaplan-Meier data from published survival curves. Submitted to: BMC Medical Research Methodology.
Dias S, Welton NJ, Sutton AJ, Ades AE. Introduction to evidence synthesis for decision making. Submitted to: Medical Decision Making.
Dias S, Welton NJ, Sutton AJ, Ades AE. A generalised linear modelling framework for pairwise and network meta-analysis of randomised controlled trials. Submitted to: Medical Decision Making.
Dias S, Welton NJ, Sutton AJ, Caldwell DM, Lu G, Ades AE. Inconsistency in networks of evidence based on randomised controlled trials. Submitted to: Medical Decision Making.
Dias S, Welton NJ, Sutton AJ, Ades AE. Evidence synthesis in the baseline natural history model. Submitted to: Medical Decision Making.
Dias S, Sutton AJ, Welton NJ, Ades AE. Embedding evidence synthesis in probabilistic cost-effectiveness analysis: software choices. Submitted to: Medical Decision Making.
Welton NJ, Ades AE. Research decisions in the face of heterogeneity: what can a new study tell us? Invited editorial for: Health Economics.
Savovic J, Jones HE, Altman DG, Harris RJ, Juni P, Pildal J, Als-Nielsen B, Balk EM, Gluud C, Gluud LL, Ioannidis JPA, Schulz KF, Beynon R, Welton NJ, Wood L, Moher D, Deeks JJ, Sterne JAC. Influence of study design characteristics on intervention effect estimates from randomized controlled trials: combined analysis of meta-epidemiological studies. Submitted to: JAMA.
Chen Y-F, Madan J, Welton NJ, Aveyard P, Bauld L, Wang Dechao, Munafo MR. Computer and other electronic aids for smoking cessation. Health Technology Assessment 08/60/01.
Savovic J, Jones HE, Altman DG, Harris RJ, Juni P, Pildal J, Als-Nielson B, Balk EM, Gluud C, Gluud LL, Ioannidis JPA, Schulz KF, Beynon R, Welton NJ, Wood L, Moher D, Deeks JJ, Sterne JAC. Influence of study design characteristics on intervention effect estimates from randomised controlled trials: combined analysis of meta-epidemiological studies (BRANDO study). Health Technology Assessment 06/91/10.
Judge A, Caskey F, Welton NJ, Ansell D, Tomson C, Roderick P, Sandhu J, Ben-Shlomo Y. Inequalities in rates of renal replacement therapy in England: does it matter who you are or where you live? Submitted to: CJASN.
Edwards SJ, Welton NJ, Borrill J. Effectiveness of Gefitinib Compared to Doublet Chemotherapies for the First-Line Treatment of Locally Advanced or Metastatic Non-Small-Cell Lung Cancer: Systematic Review and Adjusted Indirect Comparison. Submitted to: Journal of Thoracic Oncology.
Ades AE, Colbourne T, Sutton AJ, Asseborg C, Bojke L, Claxton K, Gilbert R. Intra-partum antibiotic prophylaxis to prevent neonatal Group B streptococcal disease: Bayesian chain of evidence synthesis, and a reappraisal of data on infant colonisation and infection. In revision, Int J Epidemiology.
Mavranezouli I, Whittington C, Ades AE, Welton NJ, Kendall T. Cost-utility of antipsychotic drugs in the long term treatment of schizophrenia. Submitted to British Journal of Psychiatry.
Presanis AM, Gill ON, Chadborn TR, Hill C, Hope V, Logan L, Rice BD, Delpech VC, Ades AD, De Angelis D. Insights into the rise in HIV infections in England and Wales from 2001 to 2008 from a Bayesian synthesis of prevalence evidence. Submitted to AIDS.
Govan L, Ades AE, Weir CJ, Welton NJ, Langhorne P. Comparison of different systems of organised stroke unit care: a systematic review and meta-analysis. Submitted, Stroke.
Glaser B, Ades AE, Lewis S, Emmet P, Lewis G, Davey-Smith G, Zammit S. Perinatal folate-related exposures and risk of psychotic symptoms in the ALSPAC birth cohort. Submitted to Schizophrenia Research.
Salanti G, Ades AE, Ioannidis JPA. Graphical methods and numerical summaries based on Bayesian methodology assist interpretation of results from multiple-treatments meta-analysis. Submitted to Journal of Clinical Epidemiology.
Lu G, Ades AE, Barakzai AK, Davies P, Churchill R, Davies SJC. Synthesizing evidence on multiple measures with measurement errors. Psychological Methods, under revision.
Higgins JPT, Jackson D, Barrett JK, Lu G, Ades AE, White IR. Identifying and accounting for conflicting evidence in multiple treatments meta-analyses involving multi-arm studies. submitted to Research Synthesis Methods.
Published technical reports
Goubar A, Ades AE, DeAngelis D, McGarrigle CA, Mercer C, Tookey P, Fenton K, Gill ON. Bayesian multi-parameter synthesis of HIV surveillance data in England and Wales, 2001. London: Health Protection Agency Centre for Infections, Technical Report March 2006.
Dias, S., Welton, N.J., Sutton, A.J. & Ades, A.E. NICE DSU Technical Support Document 2: A Generalised Linear Modelling Framework for Pairwise and Network Meta-Analysis of Randomised Controlled Trials. 2011. Available from http://www.nicedsu.org.uk
Dias, S., Welton, N.J., Sutton, A.J., Caldwell, D.M., Guobing, L. & Ades, A.E. NICE DSU Technical Support Document 4: Inconsistency in Networks of Evidence Based on Randomised Controlled Trials. 2011. Available from http://www.nicedsu.org.uk
Dias, S.,Sutton, A.J., Welton, N.J. & Ades, A.E. NICE DSU Technical Support Document 6: Embedding evidence synthesis in probabilistic cost-effectiveness analysis: software choices. 2011. Available from http://www.nicedsu.org.uk
Burch J, Palmer S, Christian S, Corbett M, Paulden M, Conti S, McKenna V, Duffy S, Welton NJ, Sutton AJ, Ades AE, Abrams KR, Cooper NJ, Westwood M. Zanamivir and oseltamivir for the treatment of influenza: A Systematic Review and Economic Evaluation. NICE Assessment Report, September 2008 http://www.nice.org.uk/guidance/index.jsp?action=download&o=42002
Macbeth F, Champion A, Bennett A, Francis K, Collins E,Berendse S, Cleves A, Coles B, Willis S, Welton NJ, Dewis R, Gribbin J, Baker M. Advanced breast cancer: diagnosis and treatment. NICE Clinical Guideline, Draft for Consultation, August 2008. http://www.nice.org.uk/nicemedia/pdf/ABCFullGuidelineConsultation120808.pdf
CG82 Schizophrenia (update): Core interventions in the treatment and management of schizophrenia in primary and secondary care. Special advisor: Welton NJ. National Collaborating Centre for Mental Health, commissioned by the National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence. 25th March 2009. Available at http://www.nice.org.uk
Recent invited conference presentations
Ades AE, Welton NJ. A Bayesian synthesis of data on maternal incidence in the UK: implications for screening and future research. World Conference on Toxoplasmosis, Copenhagen. June 23-25 2003. (Keynote address).
Ades AE. Evidence synthesis in decision analysis: the modeling IS the meta-analysis. Invited address “Beyond Meta-analysis”, 3rd Joint meeting of the International Society for Clinical Biostatistics and the Society for Clinical Trials, London July 20-24, 2003 (address to invited session).
Ades AE. Evidence Synthesis in Clinical Drug Development: decision criteria in modelling and simulation. Satellite meeting at PAGE (Population Approach Group Europe, GlaxoSmithKline), Copenhagen, June 12-14, 2007 (Keynote address).
Welton NJ. Informing research decisions. Invited session “Methods of evaluation for policy decisions”. Royal Statistical Society Annual Conference, York July 16-20, 2007 (address to invited session). Powerpoint presentation (PDF, 211Kb).
Ades AE. Network Meta-anlysis and Indirect comparisons: are they so controversial ? Deutsche Gesellschaft für Medizinische Informatik, Biometrie und Epidemiologie, 54th Annual Conference, Essen, September 7-10, 2009. Powerpoint presentation (PDF, 397Kb).
Recent abstracted conference presentations
2010
Welton NJ et al. Models for potentially biased evidence in meta-analysis using empirically based priors. Society for Research Synthesis Methodology. 5th Annual Meeting, 5-7th July 2010, Cartegena, Spain.
Hollingworth,W, Turner JA, Welton NJ, Comstock BA, Deyo RA. HTAi 2010 Maximising the Value of HTA, 7th Annual Meeting, 6th - 9th June 2010, Dublin, Ireland. (poster presentation).
Welton NJ, Ades AE. Prioritising further research when there are multiple competing health technologies. HTAi 2010 Maximising the Value of HTA, 7th Annual Meeting, 6th - 9th June 2010, Dublin, Ireland. (oral presentation).
2009
Lu G, Ades AE, Welton NJ. A Two-stage Approach to Mixed Treatment. Comparison Meta-analysis. Presented at SRSM 4th Annual Meeting, Seattle, USA, July 2009.
Lu G, Ades AE. Synthesizing evidence on multiple measures with measurement errors. Presented at SRSM 5th Annual Meeting, Cartagena, Spain, July 2010.
Price MJ, Welton NJ, Ades AE. Model averaging in the presence of structural uncertainty about treatment effects: impact on treatment decision and expected value of information. 31st Annual Meeting of the Society for Medical Decision Making (October 18 - 21, 2009), Hollywood. Powerpoint presentation (PDF, 282Kb).
Price MJ, Welton NJ, Ades AE. Calculating Markov transition probabilities when treatment effects are reported as relative risks with a different cycle time31st Annual Meeting of the Society for Medical Decision Making (October 18 - 21, 2009), Hollywood. Powerpoint presentation (PDF, 282Kb).
Dias S, Welton NJ and Ades AE. Estimation and Adjustment of Bias in Randomised Evidence Using Mixed Treatment Comparison Meta-analysis, 30th Annual Conference of the International Society for Clinical Biostatistics, Prague, August 2009. Powerpoint presentation (PDF, 2249 Kb).
Dias S, Welton NJ, Ades AE. Methods for assessing consistency in Mixed Treatment Comparison Meta-analysis, Annual Conference of the Royal Statistical Society, Edinburgh, September 2009. Powerpoint presentation (PDF, 20Kb).
2008
Govan L, Weir C, Langhorne C, Ades AE, on behalf of the Stroke Unit Trialists Collaboration. Comparisons of different systems of organised (stroke unit) care: a secondary analysis of systematic review. 17th European Stroke Conference, Nice,France, May 13-16, 2008.
Presanis AM, De Angelis D, Goubar A,Spiegelhalter D, Ades AE. A Bayesian synthesis of evidence for estimating HIV incidence among men who have sex with men in London, 7th World Congress in Probability & Statistics, 18th July 2008, Singapore.
Moreno SG, Sutton AJ, Ades AE, Stanley TD, Abrams KR, Peters JL, et al. Assessment of methods to adjust for publication bias through a comprehensive simulation. German Journal for Quality in Health Care (Abstracts of the 16th Cochrane Colloquium) 2008;102:7-99.
Dias S, Welton NJ and Ades AE. Checking consistency of direct & indirect evi-dence in Mixed Treatment Comparison meta-analysis, 29th Annual Conference ofthe International Society for Clinical Biostatistics in Copenhagen, Denmark, August 2008. Powerpoint presentation (PDF, 1099Kb).
Price MJ, Welton NJ, Ades AE, Walker S, Mulenga V, Chintu C, Gibb DM. Bayesian estimation of Markov parameters using individual level data with left, right, and interval censoring. Society for Medical Decision Making, 11th Biennial European Meeting, 2008, Rome. Powerpoint presentation (PDF, 122Kb).
Lu, G, Ades AE. Evidence-consistency modelling for mixed treatment comparison meta-analysis. 29th Annual Conference of International Society for Clinical Biostatistics, 17-21 August, 2008, Copenhagen, Denmark (poster presentation).
Cooper NJ, Sutton AJ, Ades AE, Welton NJ. Addressing between-study heterogeneity and inconsistency in mixed treatment comparisons: Application to stroke prevention treatments for Atrial Fibrillation patients. 16th Cochrane Colloquium. 3-7 October, 2008. Freiburg, Germany.
Welton NJ, Caldwell DM, Adamopoulos E, Vedhara K. Mixed treatment comparison meta-analysis of complex interventions: Psychological interventions in coronary artery disease. The Society for Research Synthesis Methodology 3rd Annual Meeting. 20-23 July 2008. Achilleion Palace, Corfu Greece. Powerpoint presentation (PDF, 1884Kb).
Cooper NJ, Sutton AJ, Ades AE, Welton NJ. Adressing between-study heterogeneity and inconsistency in mixed treatment comparisons: Application to stroke prevention treatments for Atrial Fibrillation patients. The Society for Research Synthesis Methodology 3rd Annual Meeting. 20-23 July 2008. Achilleion Palace, Corfu Greece.
Judge A, Welton NJ, Shaw M, Ben-Shlomo Y. Producing Small Area Estimates of the Need for Hip and Knee Replacement surgery. - Sample Surveys and Bayesian Statistics Conference and Workshop. SSBS08. Southampton. 26-29 August, 2008.
Judge A, Welton NJ, Shaw M, Ben-Shlomo Y. Inequalities in the Provision of Elective Primary Hip and Knee Replacement: Analysis of Hospital Episode Statistics for England. International Association for Offical Statistics Conference. IAOS. Shanghai, 14-16 October 2008.
Ades AE, Lu G. Unrecognised relative effect modeifiers in evidence synthesis: bias or just plain nonsense. The Society for Research Synthesis Methodology 3rd Annual Meeting. 20-23 July 2008. Achilleion Palace, Corfu Greece.
Ades AE, Lu G.Meta-analysis and indirect comparisons: equally biased or equally meaningless? Methods in Meta-Analysis meeting, Freiburg, Germany, October 3 2008. Powerpoint presentation (PDF, 194Kb).
2007
Price MJ, Welton NJ, Ades AE. Structured modelling for the synthesis of evidence on multi-state Markov transitions: a cost-effectiveness analysis of treatments for asthma. International Health Economics Association, 6th World Congress on Health Economics: Explorations in Health, Copenhagen 7-11th July 2007 (oral presentation).
WeltonNJ, Ades AE. Expected Value of Research for Cluster Designed Randomised Controlled Trials: Application and Discussion. International Health Economics Association, 6th World Congress on Health Economics: Explorations in Health, Copenhagen 7-11th July 2007.
Lu G, Ades AE. The role of consistency equations in multi-parameter evidence synthesis. Submitted to 28th Annual Conference, International Society for Clinical Biostatistics. Alexandroupolis, July 29- August 2, 2007.
Price MJ, Welton NJ, Ades AE. Modelling treatment effects in discrete-time Markov data from clinical trials of asthma. 30th Annual PSI conference: Chester 13-16th May 2007 (oral presentation).
Price MJ, Welton NJ, Ades AE. Bayesian Inferential Techniques For Modelling The Effect Of Treatment On Disease Progression Represented By A Continuous-Time Markov Model. 5th workshop for Bayesian inference in Stochastic Processes: Valencia 14-16th June 2007 (oral presentation).
Welton NJ, Ades AE. Methods of evaluation for policy decisions: Informing research decisions. Royal Statistical Society: Statistics and public policy-making: hope vs. reality. 17-20th July 2007, York UK.
Presanis AM, De Angelis D, Spiegelhalter DJ, Goubar A, Ades AE. Prevalence of HIV in England and Wales, 2001-2005: estimates from a Bayesian synthesis of evidence. Royal Statistical Society July 17-20, 2007. York.
Price MJ, Welton NJ, Ades AE. Parameterising the effect of cotrimoxazole prophylaxis in a multi-state Markov model of HIV disease progression in African children.28th Annual Conference, International Society for Clinical Biostatistics. Alexandroupolis, July 29- August 2, 2007.
Presanis AM, De Angelis D, Spiegelhalter DJ, Goubar A, Ades AE. Prevalence of HIV in England and Wales, 2001-2005: estimates from a Bayesian synthesis of evidence. International Society for Clinical Biostatistics, August 1 2007, Alexandroupolis.
MorenoS, Sutton AJ, Ades AE, Abrams KR, Peters JL, Cooper NJ. Assessment of methods to adjust for publication bias through a comprehensive simulation study. Royal Statistical Society Annual Conference, York July 16-20, 2007 (best poster prize).
Caldwell DM, Ades AE. Making sense of umbrella reviews. XV Cochrane Colloquium, Sao Paulo, Brazil. October 2007.
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