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Publication - Dr Evarist Stoja

    Dynamic density forecasts for multivariate asset returns

    Citation

    Stoja, E & Polanski, A, 2011, ‘Dynamic density forecasts for multivariate asset returns’. Journal of Forecasting, vol 30., pp. 523 - 540

    Abstract

    We propose a simple and flexible framework for forecasting the joint density of asset returns. The multinormal distribution is augmented with a polynomial in (time-varying) non-central co-moments of assets. We estimate the coefficients of the polynomial via the method of moments for a carefully selected set of co-moments. In an extensive empirical study, we compare the proposed model with a range of other models widely used in the literature. Employing a recently proposed as well as standard techniques to evaluate multivariate forecasts, we conclude that the augmented joint density provides highly accurate forecasts of the ‘negative tail’ of the joint distribution.

    Full details in the University publications repository