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Publication - Professor Jon Temple

    Growth econometrics for agnostics and true believers

    Citation

    Rockey, J & Temple, J, 2016, ‘Growth econometrics for agnostics and true believers’. European Economic Review, vol 81., pp. 86-102

    Abstract

    The issue of model uncertainty is central to the empirical study of economic growth. Many recent papers use Bayesian Model Averaging to address model uncertainty, but (Ciccone and Jarociński, 2010) have questioned the approach on theoretical and empirical grounds. They argue that a standard 'agnostic' approach is too sensitive to small changes in the dependent variable, such as those associated with different vintages of the Penn World Table (PWT). This paper revisits their theoretical arguments and empirical illustration, drawing on more recent vintages of the PWT, and introducing an approach that limits the degree of agnosticism.

    Full details in the University publications repository