Dr Tamsin Edwards

MPhys, PhD(Manc)

Research Associate

Contact

Office: F1, 12 Berkeley Square
Tel: +44 (0)117 3314152
Fax: +44 (0)117 9287878
Email: tamsin.edwards@bristol.ac.uk

Research interests

My research interests are in quantifying uncertainty in predictions from earth system models. This is a challenging research topic: when modelling climate, or the behaviour of ice sheets, we cannot test our predictions by performing repeated experiments on the earth system. I am particularly interested in Bayesian approaches to this problem - in which probability is a degree of ‘belief’ based on current information, rather than an observed frequency - and collaborate whenever possible with Jonty Rougier.

I am currently working on the NERC-funded QUEST project PalaeoQUMP, which aims to use palaeodata to reduce uncertainties in climate prediction. For this I have been performing ‘perturbed physics’ ensemble simulations of the Mid-Holocene (6000 cal yr BP) and Last Glacial Maximum (21 000 cal yr BP) climates using the UK Met Office Hadley Centre climate model HadCM3, and comparing them with climate reconstructions from proxies such as fossilised pollen. These comparisons will be used in a Bayesian statistical framework to evaluate the relative success of different parameter values for the model, and to use this information in predictions of future climate change. This work is being carried out in collaboration with members of UKCIP and uses climate simulations and methods from their latest projections, UKCP09.

I am also working on the EU Framework-7 programme ice2sea, which aims to improve projections of the contribution of ice to future sea-level rise. For this I am using the GLIMMER-CISM ice sheet model to make predictions of the contribution of Antarctica to sea level rise over the next 200 years. I am also co-ordinating a model intercomparison exercise for predictions for Antarctica and Greenland from several ice sheet models, to assess the overall uncertainty in predictions of future sea level rise.

I worked on the NERC scoping study SAPPUR, (Scoping Study on the Analysis, Propagation and Communication of Probability, Uncertainty and Risk; June-November 2009). The remit of the study was to define a world-class research programme on the analysis, propagation and communication of uncertainty and risk within natural hazard science, as part of the NERC Theme Action Plan on Natural Hazards. I prepared the section of the report on hydrometeorological hazards, including droughts, heat waves, extreme precipitation, and wind storms.

I am an active member of SUPRAnet (Studying Uncertainty in Palaeoclimate Reconstruction: a network), an international, interdisciplinary group of researchers that aims to advance the quantification of uncertainty in proxy-based palaeoclimate reconstruction through the use of Bayesian statistical modelling.

I try to be involved in science communication as much as possible: so far this has included seminars and Q&A panels for the public and for university students; talks, interactive exhibits and careers events for schools; and reviewing ‘POSTnotes’, which are short briefing notes produced by the Parliamentary Office of Science and Technology.

Selected publications

Edwards, TL, Crucifix, M & Harrison, SP. 'Using the past to constrain the future: how the palaeorecord can improve estimates of global warming', Progress in Physical Geography, 31(5), (pp. 481-500), 2007. http://ppg.sagepub.com/cgi/reprint/31/5/481