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Details for Professor Jonathan Rougier

Personal details
Name Professor Jonathan Rougier
Job title Professor of Statistical Science
Department School of Mathematics University of Bristol
Contact details This expert can be contacted via the University of Bristol Public Relations Office.

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work+44 (0)117 331 8092
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Qualifications BSc, PhD (Dunelm)
Professional details
Membership of professional bodies Fellow, Royal Statistical Society
Member, International Society for Bayesian Analysis
Keywords computer experiment
complex systems
uncertainty
climate
natural hazards
Areas of expertise Model-based inference for complex systems: combining observational data, evaluations of models, and expert judgements.

How do we quantify notions of model-imperfection? How do we combine information from several different models of the same system? How do we accommodate very long model-evaluation times?

My main application area is climate prediction, notably in response to transient forcing from greenhouse gas emissions. An important strand is promoting an understanding of uncertainty and probability in science and public policy.