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Publication - Dr Bengt Autzen

    Bayesian Convergence and the Fair-Balance Paradox


    Autzen, B, 2018, ‘Bayesian Convergence and the Fair-Balance Paradox’. Erkenntnis, vol 83., pp. 253-263


    The paper discusses Bayesian convergence when the truth is excluded from the analysis by means of a simple coin-tossing example. In the fair-balance paradox a fair coin is tossed repeatedly. A Bayesian agent, however, holds the a priori view that the coin is either biased towards heads or towards tails. As a result the truth (i.e., the coin is fair) is ignored by the agent. In this scenario the Bayesian approach tends to confirm a false model as the data size goes to infinity. I argue that the fair-balance paradox reveals an unattractive feature of the Bayesian approach to scientific inference and explore a modification of the paradox.

    Full details in the University publications repository