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Professor Nicky Welton

Bayesian multiparameter evidence synthesis and value of information methods

My research interests include methodology for evidence synthesis, and use of evidence in decision modelling. I also work on methods for Value of Information calculations that can be used to prioritise and design new research by comparing the expected benefit in the reduction of uncertainty in the optimal policy decision with the cost of a proposed new study. In particular, I work on examples of syntheses that provide the inputs to cost-effectiveness analyses that inform reimbursement decisions for health technologies by organisations such as the National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence (NICE). I have worked on methods for synthesis of studies informing Markov models parameters, synthesis of evidence on components of complex interventions, bias adjustment in pairwise and network meta-analysis, allowing for uncertainty due to missing data, and combining evidence with heterogeneously reported (but related) outcomes. I have co-authored the NICE Decision Support Unit series of Technical Support Documents on Evidence Synthesis. I am co-lead of the Prioritisation of Research for Cost-Effectiveness theme of the MRC ConDuCT-II Hub for Trial Methodology Research, Associate Editor for the journal Research Synthesis Methods, a member of the editorial board for the journal Medical Decision Making, a Fellow of the Royal Statistical Society, deputy director of the NICE Clinical Guidelines Technical Support Unit, and a member of the NICE Technology Appraisals Committee.

Research keywords

  • Multi-parameter evidence synthesis Value of Information Network meta-analysis Bayesian methods