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More about this project

Ethnic groups within Britain have differing risk of coronary heart disease (CHD) and cardiovascular disease (CVD) at the same level of risk factors. This calculator adjusts for ethnic group and is based on a re-calibration of the Framingham risk equations.  It also provides the standard Framingham estimates.  The method uses the prevalence ratios for CHD and CVD for each ethnic group compared to the general population, and adjusts for differences in mean risk factor levels and prevalence of smoking between each ethnic group.

Ten-year risk of CHD and CVD is calculated using ethnic group, sex, age, systolic blood pressure (SBP), total cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol and smoking status (current smoker or not). The calculator can be applied to people aged 35 to 74 without diabetes or a previous history of CVD.

The definition of CHD used in this Framingham score is death from CHD (sudden or non-sudden) , myocardial infarction, angina pectoris and coronary insufficiency. The definition of CVD additionally includes stroke and transient ischemia.

ETHRISK Calculator

Data sources used

  • Anderson KM, Odell PM, Wilson PWF, Kannel WB. Cardiovascular disease risk profiles. Am Heart J 1990; 121(1):293-298.
  • The Health Survey for England `98.
  • The Health Survey for England - The Health of Minority Ethnic Groups `99.
  • The Office for National Statistics mortality data 1989 - 1992.
  • 1991 census data on population of England and Wales.
  • Wandsworth Heart and Stroke Study.

Warning: Due to the lack of suitable cohort studies containing black and minority ethnic group people, this risk calculator has not been validated in independent populations. It is currently awaiting peer review. This risk calculator for the first time permits inclusion of some British ethnic groups in the risk scoring process. It is offered as an aid to clinical judgement, not as a substitute. No liability for decisions made on the basis of estimates from this calculator can be accepted

Project director(s):
Peter Brindle
Margaret May
Project funder:
This work was funded by the British Heart Foundation and Peter Brindle was supported by the Wellcome fellowship for the duration of this research
Margaret May