Unit information: Business and Economic Forecasting in 2020/21

Unit name	Business and Economic Forecasting
Unit code	EFIMM0109
Credit points	15
Level of study	M/7
Teaching block(s)	Teaching Block 2 (weeks 13 - 24)
Unit director	Dr. Crespo
Open unit status	Not open
Pre-requisites	EFIM10020 or equivalent courses.
Co-requisites	None.
School/department	School of Economics
Faculty	Faculty of Social Sciences and Law

Description including Unit Aims

Forecasting is an integral part of the decision-making activities in business, finance, economics, government, and many other fields. In recent years there have been extensive developments in the methods used in forecasting. In this course we look at different approaches and techniques that help decision makers make the best possible judgments about future events. The course will normally cover forecasting with regression models, stationary and non-stationary time series models and forecasting, autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity models and vector autoregressive models. The unit will discuss data acquisition as well as data handling. The course will enable students to be better prepared for dissertations, which might require the analysis of time series data. The techniques covered are widely used in Economics, Finance and Management, and a knowledge of them will also enable students to be better able to apply them in their future work. Students selecting this unit should have basic/introductory knowledge in statistics and/or econometrics.

Unit aims:

(1) To provide the core concepts in time series techniques, which are used in Economics and Finance.

(2) Using real-world cases, the unit will enable students to identify appropriate forecasting models for a variety of situations.

(3) To prepare students for the dissertations, which might require the analysis of time series data.

Intended Learning Outcomes

At the end of the course a successful student will be able to: (1) estimate time series models and employ them to make forecasts; (2) to be proficient in the application of different forecasting methodologies in order to use them in their future academic or professional career; (3) to recognize the importance of the concept of non-stationarity, its consequences and how to test for it.

Teaching Information

Teaching will be delivered through a combination of synchronous and asynchronous sessions such as online teaching for large and small group, face-to-face small group classes (where possible) and interactive learning activities

Assessment Information

Coursework (85%) and MCQ Test (15%).

Reading and References

Wilson, H.J. and B. Keating (2009), Business Forecasting, 6^th edition, McGraw-Hill.

Ord, K. and R. Fildes (2013), Principles of Business Forecasting, International Edition, South-Western.

Hanke, J. E. and D. W. Wichern (2009), Business Forecasting, 9^th edition, Pearson Education.

Diebold, F. (2007), Elements of Forecasting, 4^th edition, Thomson South-Western.