Unit information: Probability, Statistics and Econometrics in 2019/20

Unit name	Probability, Statistics and Econometrics
Unit code	EFIM10024
Credit points	20
Level of study	C/4
Teaching block(s)	Teaching Block 2 (weeks 13 - 24)
Unit director	Dr. Proud
Open unit status	Not open
Pre-requisites	Mathematics for Economics
Co-requisites	None
School/department	School of Economics
Faculty	Faculty of Social Sciences and Law

Description including Unit Aims

Economics, as a social science, relies on analysis of observed data to test and improve theoretical models. This unit introduces the probability and statistical tools that students will need in further years of study. In this unit, students will see topics including:

• An introduction to probability using discrete and continuous data
• Bayes’ rule
• The difference between sample and population characteristics
• Properties of estimators, including consistency and unbiasedness
• Hypothesis testing relating to samples of observed data
• An introduction to econometrics using OLS
• Hypothesis testing in single and multiple regression
• Problems of estimation, including omitted variables bias.

Intended Learning Outcomes

Students will be able:

1. To manipulate mathematical formulae to solve problems involving probability and statistical functions
2. To apply probabilistic methods to economic problems and to interpret the results of probabilistic models
3. To understand statistical concepts and to apply these to estimation and hypothesis testing
4. To use appropriate statistical software (such as Excel) to carry out simple statistical analysis.

Teaching Information

Lectures: 36 hours

Classes: 9 hours

Assessment Information

Summative assessment

2 hour examination in May/June (75%) This will assess learning outcomes 1-3

Students will be allowed to bring a single A4 sheet of notes into the examination

Portfolio of assignments (25%) - This will assess all learning outcomes

During the term, students will be asked to complete 7 (SEVEN) short assignments, each of which will be collected and marked, with feedback provided. The best 4 (FOUR) of these assignments will then contribute towards the assignment portfolio.

Reading and References

There is no single textbook for this unit, but the following texts will be helpful companions:

Statistics:

Crawshaw, D.J., and Chambers, J.S. (2013) A concise course in Advanced Level Statistics with worked examples

Econometrics

Stock J. and Watson M. (2007) Introduction to Econometrics 3rd edition Pearson Education, New York

Gujarati D. and D. Porter (2010) Essentials of Econometrics (4th Edition) McGraw Hill Irwin