# Unit information: Probability, Statistics and Econometrics in 2020/21

Unit name Probability, Statistics and Econometrics EFIM10024 20 C/4 Teaching Block 2 (weeks 13 - 24) Dr. Proud Not open Mathematics for Economics None School of Economics Faculty of Social Sciences and Law

## Description

Economics, as a social science, relies on analysis of observed data to test and improve theoretical models. This unit introduces the probability and statistical tools that students will need in further years of study. In this unit, students will see topics including:

• An introduction to probability using discrete and continuous data
• Bayes’ rule
• The difference between sample and population characteristics
• Properties of estimators, including consistency and unbiasedness
• Hypothesis testing relating to samples of observed data
• An introduction to econometrics using OLS
• Hypothesis testing in single and multiple regression
• Problems of estimation, including omitted variables bias.

## Intended learning outcomes

Students will be able:

1. To manipulate mathematical formulae to solve problems involving probability and statistical functions
2. To apply probabilistic methods to economic problems and to interpret the results of probabilistic models
3. To understand statistical concepts and to apply these to estimation and hypothesis testing
4. To use appropriate statistical software (such as Excel) to carry out simple statistical analysis.

## Teaching details

Teaching will be delivered through a combination of synchronous and asynchronous sessions such as online teaching for large and small group, face-to-face small group classes (where possible) and interactive learning activities

## Assessment Details

Portfolio of assignments (40%) (Assesses all learning outcomes)

Applied econometrics essay, requiring students to engage with published research (60%) (Assesses Learning Outcomes [1]-[3])

There is no single textbook for this unit, but the following texts will be helpful companions:

Statistics:

Crawshaw, D.J., and Chambers, J.S. (2013) A concise course in Advanced Level Statistics with worked examples

Econometrics

Stock J. and Watson M. (2007) Introduction to Econometrics 3rd edition Pearson Education, New York

Gujarati D. and D. Porter (2010) Essentials of Econometrics (4th Edition) McGraw Hill Irwin